What will 2023 bring? Our predictions are that while inventory remains low we will continue to see prices not recede dramatically. Yes, we know interest rates are higher then this time last year and that definitely does effect buyers purchasing power but we’ve had enough months of the interest rate increases so that most “in the market” buyers are used to the current rates and no longer pulling back. We also know that when we put 1407 Pinehurst on the market 3 weeks ago there was very solid interest *multiple offers*! at a time of years that is typically not when buyers are out looking…
*As of today a total of 6 townhomes for sale in all of the Campbell MLS zone. That’s a low number.
We have some new listings coming in Blossom Valley and the local zip 95117- both single family homes. Both will be on the MLS within weeks. That will allow us a better view/opinion of what buyers are thinking and doing! Reach out with any questions- we are here and working actively in the market!
Happy 2023 🙂
Our latest and last listing of 2022 went pending – 1407 Pinehurst Sq.
We brought the property to the MLS on 12/16, last Friday. The status of “Members only SHOW” allows us to market the property to members of the MLS and their clients. BUT it doesn’t go out to the axillary sites- such as a Redfin or Zillow. We chose to enter the market this way prior to staging and on the week before Christmas because we’d completed the preparation/renovation of new floors, interior paint and other smaller projects. Placing a property on the market with this status allows you to “try out” the market and see what response you’ll receive and doesn’t count against “Days on Market’
Within a day or two we started to have showings and then mid week several different buyers and agents were calling and had downloaded disclosures. Soon offers arrived.
We believe the market is stronger then what we’ve all been talking about and reading articles about- buyers are out looking and buying. January will be a good time to list your property.
Yesterday Cherrywood Sq went under contract as “active contingent” which means they accepted a contract and the buyers have contingencies in place. Having contingencies in place is a part of our new market- it’s no longer standard that all buyers write offers that are free of contingencies. Typically the 3 big contingencies are: Property condition contingency, Finance contingency, and/or Appraisal contingency.
We are in the process of beginning to “prep” a new listing in the complex – not certain of arrival to the active market dates; but stay tuned and reach out of you have interest or if you know anyone who is looking to live in the fabulous Merrivale West complex!
You can also follow us on @lindsayandkelner on Instagram/Facebook if you want to keep up with a broader look at our local market.
October is a wrap and we are lumbering our way into November- best news is there’s been RAIN!
What to make of the Real Estate market ? well…
In Santa Clara county inventory declined again this week from 1095 single family homes for sale to 1053, a decline of 42 units. Inventory will probably continue to decline as that is historically what happens this time of year, but additionally this year there is a lot happening right now…mid-term elections, a Fed that is hell bent on battling inflation by raising interest rates, a stock market that is barely showing signs of hitting a bottom….
And yet life moves on for many people and there are always homes being sold.
If we look at the townhome market in the Campbell area right now there are 8 active listings (this doesn’t include the condo market) 3 of the 8 are new construction townhomes in the Pulte new division, Plaza, that is behind the Winchester Mystery house/Santana Row area. Those homes appear to be selling at a decent rate– there are currently 5 pending units.
11 townhomes in Campbell area closed escrow in October –7 of the 11 sold AT or slightly above the list price. The average list price was $1,205,475 and the average SOLD price was $1,201,450. Of the 11 sold townhomes 4 had taken a price reduction from the original list price.
At Merrivale West there were 3 closings in October.
- 1440 Woodgrove Sq- which closed 20K over the list price
- 1420 Phelps Ave- which closed AT the list price
- 1474 Golden Meadow Sq which closed 17.5K below the list price
Both 1420 Phelps and 1474 Golden Meadow had limited exposure to the market. 1440 Woodgrove Sq was staged and marketed for a full week, they also had the highest sale price of $995,000.
Currently there is one pending sale, 1334 Merrivale West Sq- which will close next week. We hear it will close slightly below the list price. It did take 30 days on the market to find the buyer. This unit is the floor plan with one full bath and ½ bath downstairs, and that unit/floor plan has typically struggled more than the other floor plans that have 2 full baths.
1376 Cherrywood Sq is currently still in Active status with a much lower list price of $799,850 then we’ve seen sellers list Merrivale West homes for since 2020 (exception was the 962 sq ft inverted floor plan that was listed in 8/2021 and they ended up with multiple offers and a $892,000 sale price). My guess is they are hoping for an overbid, however that kind of market currently is not in play in most situations. They have an 11/1 offer deadline date. We’ll see in the next few days if that strategy worked and they accept an offer – or if they wait out the market for a higher result.
We’ll keep you posted-
Throughout September we saw much sales activity at Merrivale West- but you might have missed it… because several properties that are currently under contract and working their way through the escrow process only were “shown” (or not) to a very limited number of buyers.
1474 Golden Meadow Sq, which closes escrow on 10/3, was marketed at a “Members Only Do Not Show” for a brief period. The listing agent changed the status to Active proceeded with limited marketing (only 2 photos on the MLS) no staging, reports upfront ect. They allowed showings on 9/7 and accepted a contract on 9/8.
1440 Woodgrove Sq also had a full 9 days of being Active; they DID have professional photo’s, marketing, Open Houses.
1420 Phelps Ave was also a “Members Only Do Not Show” premarket status and had no marketing other then one photo on the MLS and a sign out front. They switched the status to Active on 9/22 and accepted a contract on 9/23.
There is also currently an Active property at 1334 Merrivale West Sq which has been on the market since 9/10. * this is the floor plan with 1.5 baths and that’s a challenging floor plan for many buyers as they generally prefer more bathrooms.
My prediction is that when we see the closed sales results in early and mid-October there will be 2 properties that sold at below, or very close to list price. There will be one that closes higher then list price. You guess which ones…..
*”Members Only Do Not Show” is a MLS category that allows agents to premarket the property, not occur Days on Market, test out a list price and if the list price is changed when property goes into Active status doesn’t show up a price adjustment. The listing does not go out to ANY auxiliary sites – such as Zillow, Redfin etc. until the status is changed to ACTIVE.
There is now another listing that is officially listed as “coming soon” 1420 Phelps Ave – which is showing a $949,000 list (keep in mind that on coming soons the list price frequently changes before the agent makes it officially ACTIVE status- as this coming soon is a way for the agents to “test” a price)
Also to note that the 3 listings currently on the MLS – the HOA monthly fee is listed as a range – $260, $300, $323. For Sellers a good idea is to review what information your agent is inputting…. Kudo’s to the agent on Merrivale West Sq who got it correct!
A new listing at 1440 Woodgrove Sq today- the largest sq foot floor plan 1368 sq with 2 bedroom and 2.5 bathrooms. This unit was originally built with a sitting room on the upper level, which many owners have creatively turned into a 3rd bedroom. Strangley enough this unit has a one car garage… a short sighted move by the builder, Ditz Crane, who built the smaller sq ft units with 2 car garages and the larger units with one car garages.
The property is well presented- updated kitchen and baths (except hall bath has original shower over tub- but primary bath has tile shower) A new A/C unit is called out as a recent installation- which should be a big bonus when visiting this weekend!
The list price of $975,000 will probably go higher – this is a much desired floor plan and the inventory level has shrunken in Santa Clara county for 8 weeks straight.
There are a few more “coming soon” signs in the complex – 1474 Golden Meadow Sq, 1420 Phelps Ave (yes, the complex has a few units that face out to Phelps Ave) and one in Merrvale West Sq. but my guess is none of them will be direct competition to the 1440 Woodgrove Sq, as mentioned that larger sq ft and ability to create a 3rd bedroom makes it a strong option for many buyers.
This week we’ve had the 7th straight week of inventory levels declining in Santa Clara county. Current Santa Clara county inventory was 1810 (single family & townhome/condo’s) which is 64 fewer then last weeks 1874. We also had 281 of them go into contract which is more units then the 258 properties from the previous week.
We are “shifting” again. If you are a buyer I’d suggest getting out there now- before you are competing with multiple buyers for the same property. Just this past week we had a single family home listed in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose. List price was $1,48,900.00. It’s a well prepared and marketed home that received buyers and agents attention from day one- and on day 3 we had an offer and then later that afternoon another offer…. It’s in contract over list price and no contingencies.
Check it out: 6525 San Anselmo Way San Jose or you can visit our website at LindsayandKelner.com, OR check out Instagram/Facebook under @Lindsayandkelner
Sellers are thrilled – as they’d been watching the market step back and very worried about the outcome.
That’s not to say every listing is receiving the same attention and action- but we do know that buyers are back out looking (Open House traffic over the weekend was busy) and other Realtors are telling similar scenario’s going on for homes that have:
A List price that is realistic (not based on comparable sales from early spring, but listed closer to last several months activity)
Marketed and well presented
It is also a good time for buyers to re enter the market- after taking the summer months off for travel and vacations. Early fall generally brings an increase in buyer interest.
This week we are starting to see the market in a slightly different light –
Inventory levels are not increasing, as we had seen in the past months.
As of TUES am (our office meeting date) the total inventory for Santa Clara county, single family homes and townhouse/condo’s was 1953 properties, which is 80 fewer then the prior week, which was 2033 actives.
- Of this weeks inventory numbers of activity inventory of 1953, 311 of them have been listed in the past 7 days (again from Tues the 9th) AND that number of 311 is 88 less then the prior week.
- Santa Clara county had go into contract last week which was 8 MORE then the 244 from the prior week.
This moving out of the high summer inventory numbers is historically typical as we see more buyers return to the market and inventory churns faster. Buyers should consider that they may have less inventory to choose from in the future as we move into late summer and early fall.
What about interest rates you may ask? well…
We have a saying ” MARRY THE HOUSE AND DATE THE RATE” Interest rates fluctuate and you can change your mortgage rate with them as they fall in the future while you are living in the home you love!
We are advising all the buyers we are working with this might be the best time to make offers and get them accepted.
Wondering what to do now that there are clear signs the real estate market has changed?
First don’t panic- values are still over the end of 2021 results. Let that sink in. We haven’t fallen off the cliff with prices free falling and properties not selling. BUT, We have seen the wild market of spring 2022 roll back to more of a balanced market with increased inventory, fewer transactions, longer days on market, and list prices sellers are choosing closer to their expectations:
- More inventory (32 as of today with 7 of those listed in the last 7 days)
- Longer days on market (average days on market for closed sales in July was 24 days)
- List prices reflective of what sellers actually expect to receive (closed townhomes/condos in Campbell for July, 14 total, received an average of 100% of the list price)
Campbell townhomes/condos sold
……………………………………………….July 2022 July 2021 Dec 2021
# of units sold 14 41 18
Median price $897,500 $854,401 $782,500
Average over list 100% 103% 102%
Average days on market 24 days 16 days 30 days
Interest rates do affect the buyers and they have bounced around making everyone jittery – but for buyers the suggestion is to “marry the home and date the rate”. Rate’s change and they will forever continue to move around, just ask anyone who purchased a home in the late 80’s or 90’s.
This is still a good market- buyers don’t feel the pressure of competing against hordes of other buyers and sellers are still receiving offers that, while aren’t in the all-time high range of early spring 2022, are still in the upper end of values historically for the area.
We have less transactions, but we think that will even out as we move out of the summer when a lot of people’s attention was on travel (who wasn’t travelling and making up for the 2 years we couldn’t easily travel) and social events (our calendar has been full of outdoor events this summer). The start of the school year grounds people again, and they will start to filter back into the buying market.
We are betting on more activity in the market early fall then we had this summer.
The real estate market has shifted. This is not only a national trend but it is very much a local trend. Even more significantly to the purpose of those of you reading this, a major impact on property values at Merrivale West.
By late March there were many factors at work to signal that change was in the midst for real estate sales and probably more coming: rising interest rates, global issues, inflation.
Locally we continued to have low levels of inventory and multiple offers for properties continued so it was difficult for sellers to prepare for the impending shift. Two weeks into April we began to experience the amount of offers dropping off and the over list price bids coming in lower than the comparable sales. The 3rd week of April offers slowed, and they were coming in below the list price.
Recent time line of Merrivale West property activity:
3/17/2022 list date -1371 Cherrywood Sq, a 1056 sq ft unit, 3/31/2022 the status was changed and the property went in pending status, an offer had been accepted.
15 days later it closed escrow at $1,180,000. The all time high for a sale in Merrivale West.
4/20/2022 list date- 1459 Woodgrove Sq, a 1,292 sq ft unit, went pending on 4/29/2022. The property was active for 9 days and they had one offer, they attempted to counter, but the buyer stuck to their offer price.
Escrow closed at $1,141,000.
5/10/2022 list date 1459 Golden Meadow Sq, a 1,292 sq ft unit, went pending on 5/18/2022. The property was active for 7 days, one offer was received.
Escrow closed on 6/23/2022 at $1,070,000.
5/13/2022 list date 1367 Cherrywood Sq, a 1064 unit *, went pending on 5/19/2022 AFTER they took a price reduction on 5/17/2022. *Original list price was $999,750 and price reduced list price was $949,000
Escrow closed on 6/21/2022 at $950,000.
5/19/2022 list date 1424 Millich Lane, a 1220 unit, went pending on 6/22/2022. A 31-day active period before an offer accepted.
Escrow closed on 7/13/2022 at $935,000. The seller did receive a 30-day agreement to occupy after close of escrow.
5/20/2022 list date 1328 Merrivale West Sq, a 1292 unit, was sold on 7/9/2022, a 45-day active period before an offer was accepted.
Escrow will be closing on 8/10/2022.
6/1/2022 list date 1441 Golden Meadow Sq, a 1056 unit, on 6/114/2022 went to Active Contingency status – meaning the offer accepted had contingency period(s) in place.
Escrow closed on 5/15/2022 at $925,000. The listing agent was also the buyers agent…. Hmmmm
The trend is obvious – but consider that up till the very end of 2021, at 1380 Golden Meadow Sq which closed at $1,075,000, the sales results in Merrivale West remained below the million dollar mark since early 2019. In 2018 there were 8 closed sales in the complex and 7 of them closed over 1M.
Markets change – and when they do it is often a difficult adjustment for sellers. We worked with 2 sellers this summer, and both were wise and knowledgeable. As listing agents, we are grateful for those qualities in our clients, and we are hyper aware that communication plays a major role in how the decision making process is handled.
Our advice moving forward:
- List your property closer to expected sales price you will receive. Multiple offers are very infrequent currently.
- Property preparation is even more critical now then ever- your property needs to shine and stand out from what else is being offered in the market
- Chose an Realtor who knows the market and is active – full time, current marketing plan: professional photo’s, Open Houses held frequently allow buyers in the market to easily plan visits, works closely with other Realtors in the area.
- Communication – know the market, make certain your Realtor knows the market.
Reach out with any questions/discussions – both David and I love to hear from homeowners and discuss/share what we know is happening in the market. You don’t need to be planning a move now to discuss real estate with us – we like to share our knowledge.
Maybe you saw our sign at 1459 Golden Meadow Sq?
1459 Golden Meadow Sq is showing on the MLS as “members only do not show” – which translates into COMING SOON.
We will arrive on the MLS, full ACTIVE status Tues 5/10.
This home is fully updated -1292 sq ft with 2 bedrooms (and the 2nd bedroom is a decent size) a ½ bath on the first level, and 2 full baths on the upper level. Remodeled kitchen features Samsung gas range, Caesar stone counters, tile backsplash, recessed lighting and white cabinets. Kitchen opens to the living and dining rooms. Luxury plank vinyl with upgraded baseboards throughout lower level and slider to private patio area graced by a wisteria covered pergola. Upstairs features 2 bedrooms & 2 remodeled bathrooms, one w jetted soaking tub. Large primary bedroom has shower enclosure, newer vanity and abundant closet space. Attached garage with ample overhead storage. Lower level ½ bathroom is remodeled also.
We hope you’ll come by for visits starting Wednesday May 11th, 9:30am-12:30, Friday May 13th 5:30pm-7:00pm for those of you just arriving home after work, and both Saturday & Sunday 1:00-4:00.
We encourage you to come look- as it’s truly one of the best floor plans and completely updated units that has been on the market in a while. Attention to detail abounds!
1336 Charmwood Sq closed at $912,500 which was much lower then recent closed sales in comparision. Condition was very poor. The listing agent put a note in the Agent section of the MLS that this property should not be used for comparable purposes and he added photo’s (they had only been a few when it was listed/active.) This was generous of him as it allows appraisers/buyers/agents to know this was not a sale that should be considered “normal”
We’ve seen a slight increase in inventory the past weeks – but not leaps. As of Tues AM the inventory in Santa Clara county only had 138 townhomes for sale and the week prior that number was 132. There were 208 condo’s and the week prior was 197. Still very low. At the end of March 2022 we had a combined total of 346 units, thus only picked up 30 units in the past 2 weeks.
Yesterday 1438 Millich Lane closed at $1,161,000. WOW- it’s the highest a Merrivale West property has sold for historically. It was a well done and presented unit (see my notes below on 2/23) They had a total of 10 offers.
The runner up for the 2nd highest closed sale was in 4/3/2018 when 1344 Charmwood Sq, a 1056 sq foot with 2 beds and 2 baths sold for $1,125,000. It is said that in our local market buyers tempered their enthusiasm in 5/2018 and we began to see the market shift/slow.
This result is in line with that timeline. It shows that it’s taken 4 years since for this market to launch to the current high level. I have no doubt we’ll see strong results for the newest pending at 1371 Cherrywood Sq, which went pending yesterday.
Stay tuned as we will have a new listing in Merrivale West coming to the market in MAY – it’ll be the 1292 sq foot unit with 2 beds and 2.5 baths. Redone kitchen, baths, flooring, windows, plumbing – pretty much everything. Buyers will be impressed!
Newest listing in the complex at 1438 Millich Lane is taking offers today- I’d expect they will be under contract within the next day or two. I visited yesterday and have to say it is nicely presented for a property that was a rental (owner is also one of the sellers and they stated they are doing a 1031 exchange for this transaction)
One thing thing I’d not seen in the past is that this unit has a window is the upstairs hall closet, which allowed them to show this (oversized hall closet) as a small office space. It’s a great way to enhance the property- home offices are at the top of the list that buyers want/need in their home purchases.
I also liked that they had made the pass way counter between the kitchen and dining area extended- created a breakfast bar.
Both additions added to the features/benefits – keep in mind this is the floor plan with only one full bath, so finding new ways to add value is important, as most buyers would prefer 2 full baths.